It is widely recognized that one of the causes of Thailand's economicand financial crisis in 1997 is the real exchange rate overvaluation. Thus,this thesis aims at finding the equilibrium real exchange rate and itsmisalignment during the period of the basket of currencies to the postcrisis, 1984 - 2000, by using the macroeconomic balance approach. The result from the cointegration test and the estimation of long-runequilibrium relationship between real exchange rate and various
economicfundamentals indicate that degree of openness, share of government spendingand net capital inflow have positive relationship with real exchange rate;whereas, terms of trade and real interest rate have negative relationshipwith real exchange rate. In sum, Thailand had carried out the financial liberalization in theearly 1990s, which obviously led real exchange rate to continuallyappreciate. Compared with the equilibrium level estimated from the model,the real exchange rate was apparently
misaligned or overvalued, on averageabout 4.4% per year. This severe and chronic misalignment resulted in alarge deficit in current account, which was one of the factors that led tospeculative attacks and economic crisis thereafter. Consequently, therewere a collapse of fixed exchange rate system and an establishment ofmanaged floating exchange rate system.
���ҷ������¹�Է�ҹԾ���
�ӹǹ˹�Ңͧ�Է�ҹԾ���
119 P.
ISBN
974-17-0396-1
ʶҹ���Ѵ���Է�ҹԾ���
���Ӥѭ
REAL EXCHANGE RATE, EQUILIBRIUM REAL EXCHANGE RATE, MISALIGNMENT,
MACROECONOMIC BALANCE APPROACH, TRADABLE, NONTRADABLE,
BOX-JENKINSMETHODOLOGY, BEVERIDGE-NELSON DECOMPOSITION, COINTEGRATION,
ERRORCORRECTION MODEL
�Է�ҹԾ���������Ǣ�ͧ
����Է���Ҿ��Ҵ�����õ�Թ��ҵ�ҧ�������ǧ˹�Ңͧ�����Ը� COINTEGRATION ��� ERROR CORRECTION MODEL Efficiency in Thailand Forward Foreign Exchange Market :Cointegration and Error Correction Model
An Analysis of Money Demand in Thailand: Impacts of Financial Liberalization
�Ѩ��·���˹��ĵԡ����ͧ�ѵ�ҡ����ع���¹�ͧ�Թ㹻������ FACTORS AFFECTING VELOCITY OF MONEY IN THAILAND
�ѵ���š����¹������ԧ��������ҵԢͧ�Թ�ҷ NATURAL REAL EXCHANGE RATE OF BAHT
��ä���حҵ����¡�ҫ���������͡䫴���мš�з�������ʴԡ�� TRADABLE SO(,2) EMISSION PERMITS AND ITS IMPLICATION ON WELFARE EFFECT
����֡�Һ�óҡ�âͧ��Ҵ��ѡ��Ѿ��������Ҥ����� AN INVESTIGATION OF ASIAN STOCK MARKETS INTEGRATION
�ٻẺ���ͧ�ѵ���š����¹Ẻ��µ�� : �ó��֡����ѧ�ԡĵ���ɰ�Ԩ�ͧ������������� MODELS FOR FLOATING EXCHANGE RATES : POST-CRISIS COMPARISON OF THREEREGIONS
�š�з��ͧ��äǺ����Թ�ع����յ���Թ�ع���������ѵ�Ҵ͡��������ѵ���š����¹������ԧ�ͧ�� THE IMPACT OF CAPITAL CONTROL ON CAPITAL INFLOWS, INTEREST RATE AND REALEXCHANGE RATE IN THAILAND
�š�з��ͧ���ŧ�ع�Ҥ�Ѱ��͡��ŧ�ع�Ҥ�͡����С���Ժҧ���ɰ�Ԩ�ͧ������� THE EFFECT OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT ON PRIVATE INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN
THAILAND.
��������ѹ���������������С���ë��͢��㹵�Ҵ��ѡ��Ѿ��ͧ��������������¹ COINTEGRATION AND TRADING RULE IN ASEAN STOCK MARKETS.
�ç��ѡ�鹷���繼š�з�����������������鹢ͧ��������ɰ�Ԩ���Ҥ��ͼŵͺ᷹�Ѫ�յ�Ҵ��ѡ��Ѿ����к����ɰ�Ԩ���Ѳ��������з���Դ������� PERMANENT AND TRANSITORY DRIVING FORCES OF
MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON MARKET RETURNS IN DEVELOPED AND EMERGING ECONOMIES.
